The confrontation between Syria and Turkey risks a dangerous enlargement

The Syrian conflict, this time between Damascus and Ankara, returns to the center of the international scenario. The confrontation was between the regular armies of the two countries, within the formally Syrian province, where there is still a concentration of Al Qaeda militias. The action of the armed forces of Assad would have caused the death of four Turkish soldiers and about nine injured, but, above all, it caused the reprisal of the military aviation of Ankara against about forty Syrian emplacements, causing at least six deaths among the Syrian officers , although the Turkish president has claimed that between 30 and 35 soldiers died in retaliation. The scene of the clash is the Syrian north-western region on the border of Turkey, where the presence of Al Qaeda and other paramilitary allies of Ankara is still strong. Turkey's interest is to control areas on its border to prevent a Kurdish state; with the presence of the Russian military it had become necessary to establish a coexistence between the Moscow and Ankara army, which had allowed the former to maintain some military positions in the region. Russia is an ally of Damascus and the function of these positions was precisely to carry out a check on behalf of Assad in the region. There were no incidents between Turks and Russians, but this coexistence seems to have been compromised by the activity of the Syrian army, which has as its objective the reconquest of the territory and its meeting, even formal, in the Syrian state. Syrian military forces have already conquered the second largest city in the region and are also trying to take an important road node, strategic for communications. Turkey, to counter Damascus, has sent reinforcements to counter Assad and Erdogan has communicated with Russian commands, stating that Moscow forces are not among the targets, however the relationship between the two countries risks becoming irrecoverable; This is undoubtedly the strategy of the Damascus dictator, who seeks to break the pacts between the Russians and the Turks, on the strength of his link with Putin, to bring Russia's military and international weight to openly take sides against Turkey. Although not openly declared, it is clear that a war is underway between Syria and Turkey, both for the military confrontation and for the presence of foreign troops on the territory of a sovereign state. However, the greatest danger remains the possible involvement of Russia, which considers its presence in Syria and Assad's permanence in power, a fundamental objective for its foreign policy. An armed conflict between Russia and the only Muslim country of the Atlantic Alliance is not, however, an eventuality appreciated by the head of the Kremlin: despite the cooling of relations between Ankara and Brussels and between Ankara and Washington, a Turkish call could bring back into play the US on Syrian soil, also with a view to a more effective contrast to Iranian politics in the region. This prediction may seem risky, especially with the upcoming election campaign, but Trump may want to turn in his favor a renewed feeling of American greatness to invest in the presidential competition. On the other hand, Putin would have much to lose in a potential conflict, which would also help Erdogan to strengthen his position in the liking of his compatriots, who have proven sensitive to Ankara's expansionism. For the Kremlin, the diplomatic solution is the best way, but the biggest problem seems to be to contain the ally Assad, who wants to take advantage of the moment to recover the lost territories. The head of the Syrian government has shown great skill by managing to exploit every possible opportunity to his advantage and managing to remain in his place against all odds. Assad now plays a game once again in an unscrupulous way and on the verge of defeat, which would be irremediable, looking for a gamble that can prove to be very dangerous: that of antagonizing Putin. But perhaps it is a strategy well combined between the two with Iranian support.