Politica Internazionale

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mercoledì 30 settembre 2020

Turkey employs Muslim mercenaries in Nagorno Karabakh

Turkey, in support of Azerbaijan, tries to characterize the ongoing conflict also as a war of religion; in fact, the presence of Islamic mercenaries from the north of the northern country could be interpreted in this sense. This religious element could have a double value: on the one hand of a practical and military nature to employ mercenaries already trained in guerrilla warfare and determined against the Christian enemy, on the other hand they would give meaning to the Turkish presence of a sort of Islamic representation in the conflict, functional to Ankara's intentions to be accredited as a representative and defender of the Islamic religion. The Syrian contingent would be made up of about 4000 men, who are already fighting alongside the Azerbaijani troops. This presence could also be read in opposition to the Egyptian desire to side with Armenia and open a competition with a religious significance as a geopolitical factor; however, Turkish support also includes the use of personnel from the Ankara army and the use of drones and military aircraft. Erdogan's intention is to win Azerbaijan victory and consequently occupy the region and encourage the return of the approximately one million Azerbaijanis who have been forced to leave the Armenian majority territory. With this victory, the Turkish president tries to obtain an argument that can be spent in his favor, both nationally and internationally, to revive his project of making Turkey a regional player. The enlargement into territories that Russia considers to be its influence indicates that Russia has become the target to hit by taking advantage of Moscow's internal difficulties and its difficult commitments in international scenarios. The fact that Erdogan wants to exploit the conflict, always latent and never defined, of Nagorno Karabakh, means that Turkey wants to extend its influence in an Islamic area, albeit with a Shiite majority, where a language very similar to Turkish is spoken; therefore a cultural, as well as a religious character. The Turkish vision foresees a stability of the area achieved to the detriment of Armenia, an ally of Moscow. Erdogan's risk appears to be anything but calculated, indeed it seems an almost desperate gamble, which reveals how his management of power is not as solid as he wants to believe. The direct entry of Russia on the scene is an event that is very likely to occur and which would cause a conflict between Moscow and Ankara; Erdogan's chances of success can only occur if this eventuality does not occur and for that to happen Azerbaijan must bring Nagorno Karabakh back under its control as soon as possible, ending hostilities. A possible Russian intervention at the end of the conflict would not have the justification to defend the Armenians and would be more complicated from an operational point of view. The next few hours will be decisive for the development of the fighting; meanwhile, this situation demonstrates once again how Erdogan is an unreliable and unscrupulous politician, ready to insert religion to further his purposes, without taking into account the possible implications. A good thing that a country like this has not entered Europe.

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