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venerdì 5 aprile 2013
In the North Korean crisis economic aspects are underestimated
One of the effects of the Korean question, which has not been made so far in proper perspective, it is the economic war that the North said the South Taking a deeper reflection, indeed, define effect does not seem right, because, however, it seems one of the causes of the crisis. Economic cooperation between the two Koreas is explicated in various forms, mutually beneficial, and the industrial zone in Kaesong, located on the 38th parallel, the border that separates the two countries on the basis of the end of the war 60 years ago, is a very enlightening example in this regard. The production of this industrial complex, where they are produced, among others, ceramics, clothing, electronics, automotive components is estimated to be worth 367 million euro per year, employing 56,000 North Korean workers employed in 123 companies in South Korea . These numbers are significant for any country and especially for a nation depressed like that of Pyongyang. For companies in Seoul, but also for those Chinese who buy finished products, employ North Korean workers mean significant savings, which allows a lower expenditure on the cost of Chinese labor by 30% and 50% of the South Korean. The prohibition of access, that the North Koreans are applying to this industrial area will result, with the end of inventory stocked in South Korea and China blocking the production in a number of companies with its economic impact. So far, these measures have been read by Pyongyang as a retaliation ancillary to a conflict of political and military, not framing the issue as one of the possible causes, certainly alongside geopolitical issues and internal equilibrium of North Korea, not secondary to basis of the international crisis. North Korea is a country on the brink of economic and social collapse, several times in past years has been hit by food shortages and needs, especially after the change of leadership, to carve out their own space in the international school scene, where find a place, which allows the preservation of its sovereignty with a political system that, objectively, outside of time. The need is particularly acute, however, because it is precisely the assumption that the life of the country and the institutions that govern it. For a normal country it would be a long and laborious process, which should assume the attitude of a dialectic both domestic and international talents absolutely absent in Pyongyang today. The urgency of the change in the general conditions, come to a complete failure of dialogue, resulting from years of total isolation, so as to be called the hermit state, chose the development of an aggressive strategy, which resulted in the nuclear threat. It does not matter if the main target of the arrows of Kim Jong-un is the USA and South Korea, China is threatened too, even indirectly, and so Japan. What escapes analysts is that Pyongyang wants more wealth per se, to get through aid and investment can raise the country. However a sensible objection might be that the North Korean regime instead use the new revenue potential, to raise the condition of his people, could further increase the already fat military budget, to blackmail the rest of the world forever. This is a consideration that provides for the occurrence of a situation can, but stop at this hypothesis can not only lead to a clash fail. If you want to avoid an immediate military escalation, which does not suit anyone, you should focus on a softer attitude, to renegotiate the sanctions and make a serious program of industrial investments, which do not consider the North Korean country basis only a tank of hand opera and cheap enough. International cooperation should be used to review the role of Pyongyang in a process of industrialization of the country, which now feels demeaned and a colony of more advanced neighbors. Although this moral aspect, which resulted in a national feeling of revenge, has not been investigated thoroughly and was not put in the right light and importance. The cold logic of profit outweighed the political and diplomatic reasoning, not allowing a correct prevention of the current situation, which, however, there were large signals. If you remain political and geopolitical problems, the overthrow of the economic dialogue will open up entirely new plans for a normalization of the situation or at least to open the way for forms of dialogue from which to restore the balance of the region.
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