Syria: the U.S. may opt for a limited attack

The request of the availability of two bases Greek, by the U.S. makes the possibility of a U.S. military attack on Syria increasingly likely. According to the rumors of an attack tips should be of short duration, within two days, to punish the Assad regime for the use of chemical weapons, but also could not hit targets for containing these weapons arsenals. In any case, any attack would not have a timetable for implementing short, because conditioned by the final report of the UN inspectors, by the necessary consultations international and domestic U.S. and determination of a justification from the international law that can override the lack of unanimity in the UN Security Council. Another factor is the presence of the UN inspectors: as long as they stay on Syrian soil will, most likely, you will not take any military action. This aspect, which could lead to some ill-advised decision of the regime in Damascus, apparently already under high pressure. If the hypothesis of the attack were to occur soon, this could mean a measure not final, but interlocutory, which reveals again, as Washington is reluctant to implement the threats against Assad to get passed what has been called the red line, identified with the use of chemical agents. This short formula of the attack, is now caught in a more complex program of warnings, which serves to gain time to make the executive to Obama, who is looking for some understanding with Russia, to find a cooperation that leads to a solution that can avoid the use of force by the U.S.. But it will be very difficult to reach a comprehensive agreement with Moscow, which remains, at this point, the main ally for Syria; likely that attempts, rather than the final outcome of the conflict, can relate to agreements to limit the use of weapons chemicals, but also finding a shared solution, the prestige of the United States, without an intervention already too long delayed, it would appear significantly lowered. As the Libyan war western countries more favorable to the intervention are France and Britain, supported by Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and for different reasons from Israel, but it will be impossible to find the abstention of China and Russia in particular Security Council United Nations, to allow a use of force under the UN teaches. Different position of Germany and Italy, which are conducive to an intervention only on its mandate of UN Headquarters and, therefore, are called out, and was definitely lacking this consent, take part in any military action against Syria. The possibility of a short attack is opposed by rebel forces that are fighting with the loyalist Syrian army, because, in addition to not lead to a definitive solution, would trigger a punitive reaction from Assad, where the expense would be, the most part, once again the civilian population. Even the application of a no-fly zone, which seemed one of the most viable and effective solutions, has not been approved by military commanders of the ten Western and Arab countries, who gathered yesterday in Amman, Jordan for a comprehensive evaluation of the situation, because destroying the military aircraft fleet Assad was considered too demanding and would have high negative consequences both in terms of human lives which means employed. This leaves the solution of the bombing to be carried out through the use of cruise missiles used by sea or by long-range bombers. This action is, however, as a compromise agreement, which does not guarantee the time limit laid down: if after two days of bombardment, which will certainly not defeat the regime in Damascus, Syria will implement his threats, for example, to widen the conflict, it will be necessary for the U.S. to completely revise its strategy and retrace their steps. This is not a remote possibility, a limited action could trigger a reaction also very heavy by Syria, which could involve several fronts: the Lebanese, Israeli, Jordanian rule, not to mention the possibility of a terrorist attack on a large scale. It is a scenario that unfortunately could occur.