Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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lunedì 26 agosto 2013
The U.S. options for the scenario Syrian and their consequences
The U.S. is ready to face all the possible options in the scenario in Syria. The effects of the chemical bombardment produced a pressure on Assad, who will grant access to the UN inspectors, decision, late, also taken following the American reaction. Obama has, in fact, strengthened the presence of U.S. military ships in the Mediterranean, equipped with weapons capable of launching missiles on Syrian targets; also submarines stationed in the area of Great Britain, presumably ready to support any U.S. action. It is said that, though, the choice is to take action at all costs: the diplomatic route continues to be traveled, in tribute to the strategy of international politics embraced by the U.S. President, who does not intend to open a new military front in a Muslim country, searching for an interference of things happening in the Arab world softer possible. In favor of this behavior is the high percentage, about 60% of the American population against the armed intervention of U.S. forces in the Syrian conflict, in addition, also concerned about the position of Russia, an ally of Damascus and opposite the headquarters of the Security Council to an action under the umbrella of the UN, a condition that Obama has so far considered essential to employ U.S. personnel in the affair. However, Washington has self bound to the promise made in 2012, which provided foreign intervention in the case of use of chemical weapons. Precisely because of this fact, the Obama administration has been the subject of repeated criticism, which have undermined the prestige of the American country, reducing their credibility. Even the views of France and Israel could contribute to the U.S. decision to implement a form of higher contrast, those hitherto practiced, against the regime in Damascus: both countries were in favor of a solution to the end of hostilities in the way as quickly as possible. The presence of the ships already indicates that the option of bombing from the sea installations Syrian loyalist is most likely associated with the use of the batteries installed in Jordan, near the Syrian border. Even the establishment of a no-fly zone is taken into consideration by the United States, both as a single measure that can be co-ordinated action from the sea. The only option is to definitely ruled out a ground intervention with U.S. soldiers deployed on the Syrian ground, if you will need additional military personnel, as well as the one already present on the ground and trained by the CIA, must be provided by other Arab states. Syria has responded to these developments by threatening to involve the entire middle east in the conflict, and the recent attack in Lebanon, could fall into this strategy. There is then to assess the position of Israel, which follows closely the evolution of the situation and stated that it had already finger on the trigger of the gun pointed on Syria to complete everything Iran has also made people feel the his voice, warning the United States that any attack against Damascus would cause the reaction of the Arab world. In fact, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates are totally alongside the U.S. in the fight against Assad, but divided from Qatar who has a different view of the situation differently preferring to finance more radical Islamic groups fighting against the Syrian regime. The main concerns are concentrated on the threat of an expansion of a conflict that can take on a regional dimension, in the nerve-center for peace in the world. This assumption may have been considered for some time by the U.S., which have accelerated in this spirit, yet without great results, the peace process between Israelis and Palestinians, to eliminate a major factor in the overall picture. A methodology for the extension of the conflict could consist of a double action focused on acts of terrorism mainly concentrated in the regional setting, supported by actions fewer but more targeted and relevant by the media to be conducted in those countries, or in their present structures abroad who intend to stand against Syria. The presence of Israel in the middle of this theater raises the degree of danger of battle, given that Tel Aviv has already put in place clear that react to any provocation and could take preventive action against Syria, which was featured some time ago.
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