Politica Internazionale

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mercoledì 25 settembre 2013

The Syrian rebels are split between Islamists and secular

Several groups that make up the front that is opposed to Assad , the Syrian civil war , signed a document in which you detach the Free Syrian Army , accused of failing to represent them and above all guilty of not sharing their goal of creating a state based on ' application of the Sharia as the sole source of legislation. If this position was, until now , that of the more radical movements , including those linked to al Qaeda , who pushed for the creation of a caliphate , the signing of more moderate Islamic movements , signals a deep rift within of the rebel forces , which could affect the outcome of the conflict. In fact, this division has existed from the beginning of hostilities , but the practical sense of more moderate parties had allowed him to overcome differences with secular groups , which aim to establish a state on the model of Western democracies. This division , which is enshrined in an official way , opens up a even more disturbing , but not unexpected , the continuation of the war. At first sight , it seems clear that the major advantage of Assad should be , at present it is believed that the rebels can also open an additional front in them, easier than any force , both sectarian and secular at the time, administer the conquered the area without interference with the other party . The more difficult the management of border areas where clashes could arise at three, which certainly facilitate the regime. This framework makes it more understandable hesitation American and the substantial final decision not to intervene , found thanks to the dismantling of the chemical . It will be necessary , however, to see , what will be the attitude of the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, linked to the Syrian army free , as strongly against the assertion of a theocratic state in place of the regime in Damascus . The impression is that the United States wants out of the question, leaving the task to Arabia , which is directly affected by developments in the civil war. The other state in the Persian Gulf , the protagonist in funding the rebels , the Islamist , Qatar, should have, however, accepted with enthusiasm the decision of the confessional groups , since its very beginning has pushed for a solution proposed in the document signed by the Islamic groups who takes the road of building a state of Islamic imprint . As for Iran, the signed document is a solution that should certainly be opposed because , in addition to going against the historical ally , Damascus , suggests the emergence of a radical Sunni state on its borders . But this division back in the game also the result of the military conflict : the opposition is weakened and can not launch the final attack units , Assad is not, however , distressed and resistant thanks to the Russian and Iranian aid , a possible solution could be represented by the fragmentation of the Syrian state into three parts, which should then negotiate peace . It is , at present, the scenario that has greater possibilities of realization , however, a Syrian so divided , also finding a pacification which at the time is even more difficult , it would represent an even greater source of instability , as well as for internal reasons also for the equilibria international . If Assad and the secular part of the rebels should not pose a danger to Israel , a state Sunni rectum, among others , Al Qaeda would be a constant threat to Tel Aviv , putting into play the American threats .

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