The unknowns of evolution Ukrainian

The situation in Ukraine is closer to becoming more and more dangerous with a realistic chance of encountering a military confrontation. Despite the many meetings, Russia does not give up his intention of helping the separatists in the east and would be sending aid men and unmarked, but clearly coming from the armed forces in Moscow. The fighting has registered an intensification, especially after the elections held by the separatists and disallowed from Kiev. Ukraine does not want to lose its eastern territories and has chosen a path of repression, which seems to have turned out to be a good choice. It is not clear this grim, although the reasons on the basis of international law are to Kiev, which seems to be suggested by some other actor. Russia, despite the devastating effects of the sanctions, continues its support to the rebels unofficial. What appears is a common mistake of both parties, which, on the one hand, they met on various subjects, on the other hand reject any practical action to end hostilities and seek a negotiated settlement. Other countries may suggest Ukraine to pursue its action is not conciliatory, to provoke a Russian response to further tighten the sanctions and begin to erode the consent to Putin; in fact, the economic and social situation, which is determined by the sanctions might suggest a decrease in the consent to Putin that weaken it. Against this view there are, however, some elements that seem to conflict with this interpretation: the Kremlin is holding tight all the media, the thought of the Russians toward the status of Ukraine coincides with Putin and even important items, such as that Gorbachev's claim that the issue has been addressed by the West in an absolutely contrary to the feelings of the Russians. The fury of Ukraine should instead be dissolved with a solution to the Finnish, who can provide a membership of Kiev to the EU, although designed in the form of particular importance to the peculiarities of the country's geopolitical position of Ukraine, able to cope with a relationship privileged with Moscow. This solution is not possible without an agreement with the argument of the cease-fire as a central element, the risks you take two shares appear to be more intransigent unable to reach an agreed solution, with a side of players that probably leads to solutions contrary to specific interests. The columns that come from Russia and spy satellites are able to detect not help any peace process, but even the American attitude, which shows no understanding no reason to Moscow; on this side, then, the situation will only get worse with the majority of Congress to the Republicans, whom Putin and the desire to go back to being a super power in Russia, is not acceptable. Should hope that Obama can keep focused on the conduct of American sanctions as an instrument of pressure, not allowing degeneration worse and very dangerous, as practical help in arms and men in Ukraine, even in the wake of the NATO members in Eastern Europe . Throughout this evolution once again the EU seems to have a marginal aspect, the new foreign policy chief, urged Russia not to provide aid to the rebels and not to allow movement of paramilitary forces from its territory. It is clear that we need something else, a more structured action, if Brussels wants to enter an active part in any negotiations, without being under the thumb of Washington. From Europe expects an articulated able to create the conditions to bring peace in a conflict that has already produced more than 4,000 victims.