Damascus in trouble against the union of the rebel groups

The Syrian regime, after four years of war, it is in serious trouble. The latest events of the conflict speak of serious military defeats, with the consequent loss of control of significant portions of territory. To emerge, in the war is the formation of Al Nusra Front, linked to Al Qaeda; This particular highlights how the militia founded by bin Laden, is by no means disappeared, but fight in defined areas, getting the military successes, also substantial. A region that is no longer under the control of Damascus is to the border with Turkey, the area is considered strategic for the development of the conflict, as it was turkish pushing for the fall of Assad, although never formally engaged in military actions. The commitment undeclared Turkey, it helps to understand the situation of the conflict that has arisen. The Sunnis have been virtually a narrow informal alliance, which also includes Qatar and Saudi Arabia, with the aim of removing Syria to Iranian influence. A side effect of this political plan was the birth of the formation known as the Islamic State, financed by the Sunni states and which subsequently are removed from their control. But this experience does not seem to have been sufficient for the Sunni states; it must be assumed that none of these nations want to commit themselves against Damascus and then is continued the tactic to fund other Sunni militias, supported in this project even by the religious leaders of the various factions. The program is to be able to unite the fragmented opposition to Assad, a factor that has allowed, until now, the regime's survival. About maneuver away from these groups, who are left out of the influence of the caliphate, he wants to create a force capable of taking Damascus, without joining the Islamic state. It is not an impossible to achieve because the caliphate is committed to defend and keep the conquered positions, but does not seem to be able to go beyond this task, already perceived as very difficult. Remember that the allies of Assad are Iranians edi militants of Hezbollah, which, however, can help ensure less in Damascus, because pledged to fight the caliphate. This kind of short military favors those who want to join the opposition of religious Assad not yet merged in the Islamic state, because the situation does not allow him to engage in the struggle between opponents of Damascus and at the same time, take advantage of the weak condition of Syrian loyalist forces. The regime in Damascus, because of this combination of circumstances, appears further weakened after the tide of the war have greatly reduced stamina. Actual suffered a sharp decline, due to a lack of replacements and desertions, acquired in a military that has lost confidence and did not see the end of the conflict. Efficiently as Hezbollah and Iran was not sufficiently offset by the use of foreign fighters of Shiite origin, which may be, indeed, a source of weakness in the deployment of Assad, because they are carriers of division and discontent in the military regular . Despite the situation in Damascus seem compromised, according to some analysts, the end of the regime seems remote; Assad has already shown previously to find emergency solutions, which enabled him to carry on the war, even when the situation seemed hopelessly compromised. Much will depend on how the parties will face a war that seems to become every day more a conflict of attrition. From the perspective of Sunni allies, you will also need to see how will manage the militias that are supplied, avoiding developments had with the Caliphate; certainly this solution is not acceptable to the US, which had shown since the beginning of hostilities, the preference for the secular opposition, whose movements appear to have been marginalized. Besides Washington had thought to include Assad in the fight against the caliphate, perceiving it as the lesser evil between the two parties. The maneuver of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey seems therefore, intended to remove, from the perspective of the three countries Sunni diplomat from the US, which may, in case of victory of the militia, welded to see a large part of the extreme Sunni movement from Syria to the borders with Iran, with the real prospect of a very dangerous confrontation. In this context a fall of Damascus seems, unfortunately, really the lesser evil for the West, even remembering what happened after the end of Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein. This runs the risk of recur the dilemma following the Arab Spring, with the aggravating circumstance of a possible rise to power directly to religious extremist formations supported by allies of Washington. An event that is likely to lead to the complete overhaul foreign policy not only American, but throughout the West.