Politica Internazionale

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mercoledì 3 giugno 2015

Assad accused of bombing the rebels moderate and facilitate the caliphate

Assad accused the US to bomb the rebel forces, formed by secular and moderate Muslims, and thus strengthen the positions of the Islamic state in Syria. The rebels themselves not framed in the ranks of the caliphate, also claimed to have suffered from aviation bombing in Damascus, while the same fate would not have happened to the men of the Islamic State. The strategy of Assad would be to eliminate the democratic opposition and present itself as the only alternative to the caliphate: this would allow the dictator of Damascus to strengthen its international position and, at the same time, remove from the scene of the Civil War the subject preferred by Washington for a any power transition. This maneuver should, however, also to the Islamic state, because it allows him to stand as the only alternative to the dictatorship in Damascus. The two sides then a common goal to defeat, albeit for different reasons, and then battle it out for the win. The strategy developed by Assad is a dangerous gamble, but part of the psychology of the character, accustomed to political calculations unpredictable. It seems clear that the dictator has drawn up a plan where the main objective is to be, he just, necessary, even for the West, to defeat the caliphate; no longer a democratic opposition, Assad would become essential to determine the defeat of the Islamic State and together maintain power in the country Syrian. The first step is to facilitate the military formations of the Caliphate in the fight against rebel groups lay people who have been very often a formidable opponent; weakening the military capacity Assad hopes that the fundamentalist militia could defeat them, not only militarily but also annihilating its political capacity, which is the main reason of aggregation against Damascus. This interest is also the troops of the Islamic state, which eliminate an opponent in a position to raise awareness of the population to rebel against the methods of the fundamentalist caliphate. In this political calculation military there is, however, a major weakness: in case of victory of the Islamic State, already very close to Damascus, the fate of Assad would be marked as a victory of the democratic transition of power could be agreed, through the supervision of other countries. Faced with this strategy appears necessary to provide every possible assistance to rebel forces who risk being crushed by two enemies, I decided to join forces against them. The attitude of Washington has been far too timid against these forces, which can represent an alternative to the Assad regime and, at the same time, deal with the caliphate. There should be greater international support on both the diplomatic and from that of the supply of arms and equipment needed; to balance the indirect support, which provides aviation Assad to the caliphate, it is needed raid on Syrian territory aviation ally fighting the Islamic state. The ideal situation would be to eliminate the caliphate from the Syrian country and come to a confrontation between the forces of dictatorship and those of the rebels democratic: in this case Assad should give up his role as a barrier against religious extremism; conversely scenarios that open would not allow any democratic way out for Syria. For the West this is the time to act in favor of the rebels and moderate disrupt the strategy of Assad.

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