Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
Politica Internazionale
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mercoledì 3 giugno 2015
Assad accused of bombing the rebels moderate and facilitate the caliphate
Assad
accused the US to bomb the rebel forces, formed by secular and moderate
Muslims, and thus strengthen the positions of the Islamic state in
Syria. The
rebels themselves not framed in the ranks of the caliphate, also
claimed to have suffered from aviation bombing in Damascus, while the
same fate would not have happened to the men of the Islamic State. The
strategy of Assad would be to eliminate the democratic opposition and
present itself as the only alternative to the caliphate: this would
allow the dictator of Damascus to strengthen its international position
and, at the same time, remove from the scene of the Civil War the
subject preferred by Washington for a any power transition. This
maneuver should, however, also to the Islamic state, because it allows
him to stand as the only alternative to the dictatorship in Damascus. The two sides then a common goal to defeat, albeit for different reasons, and then battle it out for the win. The
strategy developed by Assad is a dangerous gamble, but part of the
psychology of the character, accustomed to political calculations
unpredictable. It
seems clear that the dictator has drawn up a plan where the main
objective is to be, he just, necessary, even for the West, to defeat the
caliphate; no
longer a democratic opposition, Assad would become essential to
determine the defeat of the Islamic State and together maintain power in
the country Syrian. The
first step is to facilitate the military formations of the Caliphate in
the fight against rebel groups lay people who have been very often a
formidable opponent; weakening
the military capacity Assad hopes that the fundamentalist militia could
defeat them, not only militarily but also annihilating its political
capacity, which is the main reason of aggregation against Damascus. This
interest is also the troops of the Islamic state, which eliminate an
opponent in a position to raise awareness of the population to rebel
against the methods of the fundamentalist caliphate. In
this political calculation military there is, however, a major
weakness: in case of victory of the Islamic State, already very close to
Damascus, the fate of Assad would be marked as a victory of the
democratic transition of power could be agreed, through the supervision of other countries. Faced
with this strategy appears necessary to provide every possible
assistance to rebel forces who risk being crushed by two enemies, I
decided to join forces against them. The
attitude of Washington has been far too timid against these forces,
which can represent an alternative to the Assad regime and, at the same
time, deal with the caliphate. There should be greater international support on both the diplomatic and from that of the supply of arms and equipment needed; to
balance the indirect support, which provides aviation Assad to the
caliphate, it is needed raid on Syrian territory aviation ally fighting
the Islamic state. The
ideal situation would be to eliminate the caliphate from the Syrian
country and come to a confrontation between the forces of dictatorship
and those of the rebels democratic: in this case Assad should give up
his role as a barrier against religious extremism; conversely scenarios that open would not allow any democratic way out for Syria. For the West this is the time to act in favor of the rebels and moderate disrupt the strategy of Assad.
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