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lunedì 7 settembre 2015

France and the UK ready to go into action against the Islamic Republic

One of the consequences of the migratory movement of Syrian refugees could cause is the participation of France and the UK, alongside the US Air Force, in the fight against the Islamic state in Syria. The governments of the two European countries seem to agree the need to address the issue of the presence of the caliphate, locating it as the main cause of the escape of the Syrian population. In fact the Islamic fundamentalists are only part of the problem, the other part is the dictator of Damascus, that even if confined to a very small portion of the territory, continues to exercise forms of violence as severe than those applied by the Islamic State; also his stay on the political scene in Syria would not be a certain element of pacification of the ongoing civil war. However, both Cameron, that Hollande, seem to share the tactics of Washington, who is opting to solve a problem at a time, and more, at the moment is considered just the Islamic state, to be defeated at all costs. In this project the figure of Assad is seen as instrumental to the fight against the caliphate, as another enemy of fundamentalists, whose role should not be completely discarded in the economy of the conflict. These reflections are considerations, however belated, it is political, and military. The civil war has been going on for four years as principal, if not sole, responsibility just the Syrian president, who did not allow a democratic transformation of the country and has violently suppressed the protests until the beginning of the question, then degenerated into civil conflict. If the military point of view the presence of Assad, as an element contrary to the Islamic state, may have some basis, at least in the immediate, it is also true that the logical consequence is to hand over to the Syrian President a kind of authority, including at international, albeit unofficially. This aspect, the responsibility for which lies with the original conduct characterized by too much indecision Obama on what to do at the beginning of the crisis, should never be forgotten for a permanent solution of the political problem in Syria. It is no coincidence that Russia is moving both in diplomacy, declaring, after a long time of immobility, that the main problem of Syria is an Islamic state, both in the military, increasing its presence in the workforce's sole naval base in the Mediterranean, that of Tortosa. The goal, says always, the Kremlin is to keep Assad in power when this possibility is feasible only in a small portion of land that the Syrian regular forces can not control, but if the caliphate suffer decisive defeats, can force him to retreat, the soldiers of Assad would be favorites indirectly in the reconquest. This would avoid the possibility not at all the waves of migration, which can be stopped only with a political agreement following the elimination of the Islamic state, as well as the scene of Assad Syria. Paradoxically, however, at the present time, the second hypothesis seems to be less possible than the first, despite all the difficulties, a fight that could lead to the caliphate. The fact that Paris and London intend to turn their future efforts against the fundamentalists, testifies that the problem of permanence Assad can not be tackled in an open and peaceful, although some analysts consider the French initiative against their will to balance the Russian initiatives. Meanwhile the Americans are in a silence full of unknowns, especially for training secular Syria, on which we continue to consider whether to arms supplies more massive, this aspect, which perhaps should be treated long before more firmly , currently it has the importance it deserves, probably not to knock the Iranians, which, like Russia, continue to support Assad. The situation is so intricate and difficult to solve, and the entry of France and the UK, even without the support of substantial ground troops, will greatly complicate the life of the caliphate, but not force him to defeat.

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