Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
Politica Internazionale
Cerca nel blog
lunedì 7 settembre 2015
France and the UK ready to go into action against the Islamic Republic
One
of the consequences of the migratory movement of Syrian refugees could
cause is the participation of France and the UK, alongside the US Air
Force, in the fight against the Islamic state in Syria. The
governments of the two European countries seem to agree the need to
address the issue of the presence of the caliphate, locating it as the
main cause of the escape of the Syrian population. In
fact the Islamic fundamentalists are only part of the problem, the
other part is the dictator of Damascus, that even if confined to a very
small portion of the territory, continues to exercise forms of violence
as severe than those applied by the Islamic State; also his stay on the political scene in Syria would not be a certain element of pacification of the ongoing civil war. However,
both Cameron, that Hollande, seem to share the tactics of Washington,
who is opting to solve a problem at a time, and more, at the moment is
considered just the Islamic state, to be defeated at all costs. In
this project the figure of Assad is seen as instrumental to the fight
against the caliphate, as another enemy of fundamentalists, whose role
should not be completely discarded in the economy of the conflict. These reflections are considerations, however belated, it is political, and military. The
civil war has been going on for four years as principal, if not sole,
responsibility just the Syrian president, who did not allow a democratic
transformation of the country and has violently suppressed the protests
until the beginning of the question, then degenerated into civil conflict. If
the military point of view the presence of Assad, as an element
contrary to the Islamic state, may have some basis, at least in the
immediate, it is also true that the logical consequence is to hand over
to the Syrian President a kind of authority, including at international, albeit unofficially. This
aspect, the responsibility for which lies with the original conduct
characterized by too much indecision Obama on what to do at the
beginning of the crisis, should never be forgotten for a permanent
solution of the political problem in Syria. It
is no coincidence that Russia is moving both in diplomacy, declaring,
after a long time of immobility, that the main problem of Syria is an
Islamic state, both in the military, increasing its presence in the
workforce's sole naval base in the Mediterranean, that of Tortosa. The
goal, says always, the Kremlin is to keep Assad in power when this
possibility is feasible only in a small portion of land that the Syrian
regular forces can not control, but if the caliphate suffer decisive
defeats, can force him to retreat, the soldiers of Assad would be favorites indirectly in the reconquest. This
would avoid the possibility not at all the waves of migration, which
can be stopped only with a political agreement following the elimination
of the Islamic state, as well as the scene of Assad Syria. Paradoxically,
however, at the present time, the second hypothesis seems to be less
possible than the first, despite all the difficulties, a fight that
could lead to the caliphate. The
fact that Paris and London intend to turn their future efforts against
the fundamentalists, testifies that the problem of permanence Assad can
not be tackled in an open and peaceful, although some analysts consider
the French initiative against their will to balance the Russian initiatives. Meanwhile
the Americans are in a silence full of unknowns, especially for
training secular Syria, on which we continue to consider whether to arms
supplies more massive, this aspect, which perhaps should be treated
long before more firmly ,
currently it has the importance it deserves, probably not to knock the
Iranians, which, like Russia, continue to support Assad. The
situation is so intricate and difficult to solve, and the entry of
France and the UK, even without the support of substantial ground
troops, will greatly complicate the life of the caliphate, but not force
him to defeat.
Iscriviti a:
Commenti sul post (Atom)
Nessun commento:
Posta un commento