Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
Politica Internazionale
Cerca nel blog
martedì 24 novembre 2015
Possible reasons of killing Russian warplane
The
shooting down of the Russian military by Turkey, brings a new element
very dangerous in the entire economy of the Middle East conflict. According
to the Turkish version of the plane would boundless space of Ankara,
before being hit by a missile, you would have made all the procedures of
warning. According
to Moscow the incident would have occurred, however, in the skies and
Syrians would then treated, at best, a tragic accident. The
Russian air activity practiced by the Air Force has long which is done
in defiance of national boundaries and norms of international law,
several times during the conflict in Ukraine, the Moscow jet flew over
the skies of the Baltic republics and also in other occasions are produced in dangerous evolutions always able to generate potential accidents. It
is not known at the time, if what happened in Turkey, but it is a fact
that Russia has often used provocation as a weapon of air pressure on
both enemy states, which were not on in line with the objectives of the
Kremlin. Formally,
Russia is Turkey that are against the Islamic Republic, but Ankara is
clearly opposed to the Assad regime and, consequently, the Russian
intervention in Syria, Turkey also suspect that Moscow will provide aid
to the Kurds and, above all, to those who fight the caliphate coming just from Turkey. So even if there are no positions officially recognized contrast, in practice the reasons of friction are many and important. That
Turkey is one of the states that define lukewarm in the fight against
the caliphate is an understatement, what is ascertained; as
it is a fact that Ankara is pushing for a solution for Syria, which
does not provide for the future presence of Assad and provides for
delivery of power to the Sunni Muslims; with
these assumptions, the Russian action could have had the intent of
intimidation in line with the conduct so far in international disputes
by Putin. The
most immediate problem is that Turkey is part of NATO and that the
overrunning Russian aircraft could be considered a hostile act from
Brussels. At
the same time Russia, at this time it is closely allied to France, also
a member of the Atlantic Alliance in the fight against the caliphate. The
accident, therefore, in a mature phase where different parts of the
western camp, especially from countries of Western and Central Europe,
were affecting attitudes in favor of a greater involvement of Moscow,
also alongside the Atlantic Alliance against the Islamic state. This
involvement has been read by Sunni countries, and probably rightly so,
as an element of bias in favor of Assad, arousing deep apprehension in
Turkey and Saudi Arabia. It
also remains true that Russia is pursuing a strategy that aims to split
the Atlantic Alliance, as, in part, is already succeeding with
preferential military relations maintained with Paris. The
real problem for Turkey is that it is increasingly gaining an opinion
where Assad is recognized as the lesser evil, opinion that without
Russian help, would have stayed at a theoretical level, but now is
taking shape in an increasingly clear. In
all this, the US seems to remain on the sidelines, they need the
turkish, although limited and not very convinced, for the granting of
the bases of Ankara, essential for the US raid, but, at the same time,
do not want to exacerbate the situation with Russia, considered an ally able to help defeat the caliphate. More
likely this incident will help increase the creeping tension between
Russia and Turkey, without aggravating their official positions, while
unofficial ones may alter considerably, but in a still outside
officialdom, however this may be a factor slowdown in the fight against the caliphate.
Iscriviti a:
Commenti sul post (Atom)
Nessun commento:
Posta un commento