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lunedì 2 novembre 2015

Turkey Erdogan wins elections.

The outcome of the Turkish elections, which saw the victory of the formation of Erdogan with 49.4% of the votes, is the result of several factors, which affected the electoral competition. The most striking is that the turkish people chose a road to what seems to have been perceived as an assurance of a better balance inside, through enhanced governance ensured the stability that comes from the electoral power achieved by the ruling party. The Turks felt that a statement of Erdogan can ensure greater economic development and adequate protection from terrorism, leaving, however, pending international issues, which can not but have an impact on the country. Erdogan's victory could mean a resumption of the conflict with the Kurdish movements, which could return to a more systematic fight terrorism in response to the restriction that they should get the rights of the Kurdish people by the government, a further compression of the rights, bringing even more back the clock of history in Turkey, especially in the matter of social achievements. The affirmation of the Party of Justice and Development Party has gained in the rural context, the least sensitive to the needs of secular society, while in urban areas the appreciation to the president's party was sharply lower. The country takes a direction of increasing intrusiveness of the religious element in the political environment, mixed with a growing nationalism, which aims to bring Turkey to the glories of the Ottoman Empire. Particularly significant is the first gesture that followed the announcement of the results, made by Erdogan, who went to pray in the Eyup Mosque, as did the Ottoman Sultans soon after their proclamation. This identification in the greatest expressions of the Ottoman Empire seems to take something pathological, in addition to wanting to become a symbolic aspect crucial to the nationalist part of the country; In fact, the nationalist party suffered its considerable loss of votes in favor of Erdogan's party, now located in that part of the electorate, as a representative of a greater guarantee for the success of Turkish identity, including to the international stage, that He did not spare criticism of the authoritarian attitudes of the President of Turkey. Even the celebrations of the Muslim Brotherhood clearly indicate that the religious grow in weight in Turkish society, preventing the transformation into modern country, long-pursued cai metropolitan classes. Erdogan seems to follow the pattern applied by Putin, on a regional scale is more limited, but it has strong anomalies with the climb of the tenant of the Kremlin: a large dose of nationalism, will influence on countries formerly belonging to the Ottoman Empire, large importance of the religious factor, Islamism in Turkey, in Russia the Orthodox Church. In any case, the success of Erdogan is not complete, however, because the election results does not allow him to change the institutional structure of the republic parliamentary presidential republic. This aspect, silenced by pro-government press, could exacerbate relations with the other political forces, guilty of obstructing the presidential and design could alter those balances, that the electoral vote seems to take for granted. On the international will present the most difficulty for the allies of Turkey, like the US, which will curb the ambitions Turkey on Syria, avoiding a dangerous confrontation with Russia and Iran; Washington will increase efforts as a mediator who announced already problematic without Erdogan got so successful election. Even more difficult will announce relations with the European Union, that despite the efforts of Merkel, will hold with Turkey only good neighborly relations and cooperation, especially on the issue of migrants, which may not satisfy the ambitions of Ankara for an entry in Brussels, given the totally inadequate standards on the issue of respect for human rights within the state turkish.

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