Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
Politica Internazionale
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lunedì 2 novembre 2015
Turkey Erdogan wins elections.
The
outcome of the Turkish elections, which saw the victory of the
formation of Erdogan with 49.4% of the votes, is the result of several
factors, which affected the electoral competition. The
most striking is that the turkish people chose a road to what seems to
have been perceived as an assurance of a better balance inside, through
enhanced governance ensured the stability that comes from the electoral
power achieved by the ruling party. The
Turks felt that a statement of Erdogan can ensure greater economic
development and adequate protection from terrorism, leaving, however,
pending international issues, which can not but have an impact on the
country. Erdogan's
victory could mean a resumption of the conflict with the Kurdish
movements, which could return to a more systematic fight terrorism in
response to the restriction that they should get the rights of the
Kurdish people by the government, a further compression of the rights,
bringing even more back the clock of history in Turkey, especially in the matter of social achievements. The
affirmation of the Party of Justice and Development Party has gained in
the rural context, the least sensitive to the needs of secular society,
while in urban areas the appreciation to the president's party was
sharply lower. The
country takes a direction of increasing intrusiveness of the religious
element in the political environment, mixed with a growing nationalism,
which aims to bring Turkey to the glories of the Ottoman Empire. Particularly
significant is the first gesture that followed the announcement of the
results, made by Erdogan, who went to pray in the Eyup Mosque, as did
the Ottoman Sultans soon after their proclamation. This
identification in the greatest expressions of the Ottoman Empire seems
to take something pathological, in addition to wanting to become a
symbolic aspect crucial to the nationalist part of the country; In
fact, the nationalist party suffered its considerable loss of votes in
favor of Erdogan's party, now located in that part of the electorate, as
a representative of a greater guarantee for the success of Turkish
identity, including to the international stage, that He did not spare criticism of the authoritarian attitudes of the President of Turkey. Even
the celebrations of the Muslim Brotherhood clearly indicate that the
religious grow in weight in Turkish society, preventing the
transformation into modern country, long-pursued cai metropolitan
classes. Erdogan
seems to follow the pattern applied by Putin, on a regional scale is
more limited, but it has strong anomalies with the climb of the tenant
of the Kremlin: a large dose of nationalism, will influence on countries
formerly belonging to the Ottoman Empire, large importance of the religious factor, Islamism in Turkey, in Russia the Orthodox Church. In
any case, the success of Erdogan is not complete, however, because the
election results does not allow him to change the institutional
structure of the republic parliamentary presidential republic. This
aspect, silenced by pro-government press, could exacerbate relations
with the other political forces, guilty of obstructing the presidential
and design could alter those balances, that the electoral vote seems to
take for granted. On
the international will present the most difficulty for the allies of
Turkey, like the US, which will curb the ambitions Turkey on Syria,
avoiding a dangerous confrontation with Russia and Iran; Washington will increase efforts as a mediator who announced already problematic without Erdogan got so successful election. Even
more difficult will announce relations with the European Union, that
despite the efforts of Merkel, will hold with Turkey only good
neighborly relations and cooperation, especially on the issue of
migrants, which may not satisfy the ambitions of Ankara for
an entry in Brussels, given the totally inadequate standards on the
issue of respect for human rights within the state turkish.
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