Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
Politica Internazionale
Cerca nel blog
venerdì 20 aprile 2018
North Korea available for nuclear disarmament
According
to the government of Seoul, North Korea would be ready to start a
process of denuclearization of the military sector of the country,
without asking for the abandonment of American troops from the territory
of South Cora. Seoul, at this stage, is interpreting very
careful the role of mediator between Washington and Pyongyang, having
as main objective to defuse the danger of a conflict between the US and
North Korea, which would see the southern part of the country as the
main victim. If
what was affirmed by Seoul was true, it would be the first time that
North Korea did not place the departure of US troops in the counterparts
for its nuclear disarmament. The
US military stationed in South Korea is about 28,000 and has so far
constituted the main obstacle to North Korean nuclear disarmament,
precisely because the atomic weapon was used as a possible possibility
of an eventual invasion. On the other hand, the American withdrawal would be an insurmountable obstacle in a negotiation on the disarming of Pyongyang. The
North Korean novelty is explained by analysts through the request of
the regime, which will require security guarantees for its survival; if
this hypothesis is true, one can not think only of a form of pressure
from China, but also the continuous informal meetings between the
American and North Korean representatives. Kim
Jong-Un would have prioritized the security of remaining in charge of
the nation, a permanence threatened several times by the United States. However,
to believe that this is the only reason does not seem real, one
possibility could consist in the fear of triggering an escalation
towards a more widespread atomic weapon endowment. Japan's
threats to equip themselves with a nuclear weapon are very concrete,
given that Tokyo already has all the knowledge necessary to build the
atomic weapon in a short time. Japan's position is very critical of the possible concessions to North Korea and the American openings in Pyongyang; what
is feared in Tokyo is that the collaborative behavior of North Korea is
not sincere, but can hide a tactic aimed at protecting part of its
military arsenal. The
Japanese attitude is much feared by China, because it constitutes an
alteration to the regional equilibrium and because there are always
potentially dangerous disputes between the two countries. For Beijing, finding an opponent with an atomic weapon is very different from having one with only conventional armaments. The
issue does not seem secondary in North Korean developments: the Chinese
objective is to maintain a situation in the region under control, to
preserve stability and commercial trafficking: in this perspective, Kim
Jong-un's request falls completely, as China would have previously operated to surrender the scheme. If
the North Korean dictator agrees with the US, it must first have agreed
with Beijing that could have guaranteed greater international
availability. On
the other hand, an equally important motivation for China is to avoid
the meeting of the two Koreas, which would cause the American presence
on its borders. All this can only be achieved with a détente between Washington and Pyongyang, which also satisfies Seoul. On
the American side for Trump this would be a diplomatic victory, which
not even Obama could boast: the nuclear disarmament of North Korea would
represent a prominent point in the career of the President of the
United States, which would bring his prestige back home on the
international stage .
Iscriviti a:
Commenti sul post (Atom)
Nessun commento:
Posta un commento