The implications of the economic war on Iran

 The shift in the fight against Iran, announced by Trump—a full-scale economic war—brings implications and assessments that must be made very carefully. The first point to consider is the evident difficulty American action has encountered in confronting Tehran. There is an objective political difficulty, inherent in the Iranian regime's strengthening, especially domestically, where American action has failed to rouse the population against the theocratic government. Added to this is the fact that American commanders have communicated that targets in Iran are running out, without concrete results. Finally, the reduction in military stockpiles, especially missiles, is forcing the White House to reassess its priorities, at least until arsenals are replenished, albeit not quickly. The intention to wage economic war against Iran opens up new scenarios, which may in part mirror old objectives. Domestically, Iran's economy has long been in dire straits, and further tightening could lead to the country's collapse, deepening already profound popular discontent and potentially fueling uprisings. However, one of the biggest mistakes resulting from the Iranian conflict has been to consolidate the regime's most radical elements, relegating moderates to the sidelines and encouraging greater repression. If Trump hopes to spark popular uprisings through economic tightening, this, at least for now, is merely wishful thinking. The international political implications are numerous, both negative and positive. The negative ones concern potential relations with China and Russia, the countries that primarily do business with Tehran. The American president's threat is also directed against any country seeking trade with Iran or, in any case, providing aid. The desire to isolate Iran could spark new tensions with Beijing and Moscow, which would also impact already tense economic relations, especially with China. This is a factor that needs to be carefully evaluated, as it could generate trade tensions between Washington and China, potentially impacting global economic data. But Trump's economic warfare could also have positive repercussions on relations with traditional allies, which have not been good recently, precisely because of the American president. The call to join an economic boycott should be easier to implement than joining an unwanted or agreed-upon war. After all, Iran is already subject to numerous Western sanctions, and tightening sanctions should not significantly impact their respective economies and would allow explicit support for Trump, even without incurring Tehran's threats regarding potential support for the US, favoring the latter by allowing them to use military bases on various national territories. The economic war proclaimed by Trump presents obvious difficulties of success, especially due to China's need for crude oil. However, even if it isn't a complete success, it will be a more viable tactic than the more purely military one, which was a misjudgment, causing higher inflation and a further erosion of the American president's approval ratings, both at home and abroad.