Politica Internazionale

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giovedì 6 marzo 2014

Extension of Russian citizenship and referendum: weapons of Putin to seize the Crimea.

While the soldiers of Russia occupying part of the territory of Ukraine, the soft part of the strategy of Putin add two important pieces . The first relates to the facilities , the prime minister Dmitry Medvedev issued to facilitate the acquisition of Russian citizenship to citizens of countries belonging to the former Soviet Union. At this bill are working on different parliamentary groups to arrive quickly to finalize the document . Will be reduced times to get Russian citizenship , which will be enough for just three months , and will remain in effect make it impossible to keep the old citizenship . This measure , if applied heavily in Crimea, could lead to a portion of the territory of another state , Ukraine, mainly inhabited by people of a different country. This hypothesis is very plausible, considering that the percentage of the Russian population in Crimea is around 60%. It is expected that this part of the inhabitants of the Crimea , in fact, wish to rely , at least in most of the opportunity fielded by the Russian government . With such a scenario it would be far beyond the justification used by the Kremlin to the current intervention in Crimea, justified only by the need to protect the inhabitants of the Russian language. With a presence of Russian citizens exposed to possible Ukrainian nationalist violence , the violation of international law , given by the invasion of a foreign country , could be challenged by Moscow. In fact the invasion, also without a declaration of war remains , but would constitute an anomalous situation for the same international law, somehow bypassed by the standard Russian . If , on one hand the Ukrainian territory is legitimate , the most logical solution would be to expel those who have opted for Russian citizenship , releasing the Ukraine. To avoid this, here is the second piece put in place by Putin , albeit indirectly . The pro-Russian authorities , in fact , they called on the President of Russia to its consideration is given to the request to join the Russian Federation. This decision for Putin, will be even easier to meet and to justify in the face of international public opinion , if the referendum called by the authorities of the Crimea, and advance to the 16 instead of March 30 , will succeed to the wishes Russians. There will be two questions referred to the citizens of Crimea : the first where the Republic of Crimea wants to stay in Ukraine or Russia to follow , if the second , remaining part of the country of Ukraine, want to maintain the autonomy enshrined in the Constitution of 1992, which ensured de facto autonomy . The reaction of Kiev was to declare illegal the referendum proclaimed from the Crimea . But this statement also manifests the impotence of Ukraine in front of the trap built by Putin : if the referendum will give the green light to the move to the Russian Federation , it is impossible to disregard . The most likely future will be that of a Crimea belongs to Russia , which would mean a victory for Putin. Ukraine is preparing such a division could not be completed , whether the wave of an eventual political success in the Crimea , Moscow wants to expand its action , in ways similar to other areas inhabited by Russians , it would be difficult to objectively stop .

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