Ukraine: Germany is pushing for a new conference already Geneva

German Chancellor Merkel tries to be the protagonist of a diplomatic breakthrough of the Ukrainian question . Despite the failure of the first conference in Geneva, where Germany was a major advocate , tried without appreciable impact on the peace process, Berlin raises a second edition of the Swiss , framing it as a unique opportunity to prevent an escalation army. Noting the failure of the first meeting , Merkel opts for a zero of the current positions of the parties , for a new start from scratch. If the intention is laudable , it seems difficult to objectively , that this condition can be fulfilled , in the face of the tragic developments of the situation and repeated violations of international law by the Russians . However, discussions with the U.S. and Russia have started in order to find a date for the organization of the meetings , which are likely to promote a political solution , with the main purpose of silencing the guns. The German solution focuses on the conduct of free elections on the date of May 25 , which would delegitimize the referendum announced by the pro-Russian . If on paper this strategy can be shared , in practice it seems difficult to ensure well secure an election , in the eastern territories , not shared by most of the population ; indeed, at the time , an election proclaimed by Kiev could help raise tension and provoke further violence . Holding of elections in Ukraine , currently would only be possible with a neutral peacekeeping force , under UN auspices , able to maintain order and to avoid any clash between the parties. This condition is not possible because there seems to be voluntary , beyond any statement of intent , including that of the Italian defense minister , and also because Moscow would deny in the most absolute sense any kind of solution at the headquarters of the Security Council. The German intention would be to strengthen the role of the OECD in Ukraine, but the precedent of kidnapping does not authorize inspectors to trust a lot of confidence in this solution. On the political expedient election would be made to strengthen Kiev to remove any legitimacy of the referendum pro-Russian , but the outcome of the polls could be accepted by Moscow depending on the outcome and would not change his mind , however, the Kremlin on self-determination of the population pro-Russian . The participation in a new Geneva conference may , however, serve to Russia in order to gain time to think about solutions that will enable the country to emerge from diplomatic , and for Washington to look for ways out of the current impasse . At this stage, Moscow seems to have realized that the situation got out of hand in the management of the rebels, however, is not willing to give up a condition of participation, the new conference , representatives of the rebels in the eastern territories of Ukraine. This argument poses a serious ruling on the actual conduct of the meetings, since the very purpose of Moscow is to impose the presence of participants who have no legitimacy , nor diplomacy, nor popular subsequent to the election, but only account for movements opposed to Kiev in fact set up independently and outside of any path to legal and institutional framework. Such participation could go to create a precedent in similar future situations . But that is functional to the intent of Moscow will affect the future institutional process that might arise in Ukraine; it is no secret that Russia will push for a federal strongly oriented to the protection of autonomy , which could help with the times would be more favorable , a soft separation of these territories to the Kremlin. Ultimately the game is played in eastern Ukraine on these issues , set aside the military escalation , Moscow aims at a solution more favorable to her with a longer timeframe . This goal , however, clashes with the desire to Kiev to regain their territories in re-establishing their sovereignty . From the point of view of Kiev but also of international law, it is a widely legitimate position , which clashes with the armed resistance of the pro-Russian , from which they were born the last episodes of violence. The German activism hides , in addition to good intentions, the objective economic interests of Germany, pointing to the east to expand its market and always find the most popular means of production ; responsibilities , at least indirect Germany, on the departure of the Ukrainian crisis is not yet in-depth discussion on the willingness of Berlin to look more and more to the east. Looking in this direction could perhaps understand better the pressures of Germany to open a new Geneva Conference and restore some stability in Kiev.