Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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lunedì 18 agosto 2014
The difficult efforts to Berlin for a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia
Berlin and Paris are working towards a ceasefire in the conflict in Ukraine. The negotiation is difficult because of the obstinacy of Putin to pursue its expansionist policy agenda, through the support, which was not admitted to the pro-Russian separatists. In recent weeks the aid of men and material to the troops who fight the army of Kiev has intensified, despite it has never been acknowledged by Moscow; this situation makes it very problematic to achieve a goal, even limited, of some form of distension between the parties. The behavior of the Ukrainian government, constitutes an obstacle to diplomatic action, after they have been intensified pro-Russian military actions in the areas, which have caused several civilian casualties. Without reaching a truce based on the non-use of weapons, and fully supported by both parties, any ambition to begin negotiations that will lead to the end of the conflict, seems destined to remain so. The decisive solution would be to find an honorable solution to Moscow, which allows Russia to respect the borders of Ukraine and its territorial integrity. This point is central to the German and French diplomatic strategy, but contrary to the objectives that Putin sends forward so stubborn, despite the effects of the sanctions. In this phase, at least officially, the United States seem to stay out of the meeting, confirming their strategies, as the United States and the European Union, continue to be non-convergent. Berlin and Paris, heavily affected by the economic interweaving with Moscow, have an interest in pursuing a softer way, shared by Rome, which favors a diplomatic solution, while Washington identifies this strategy in a way that allows Moscow to gain time. In fact, for now, the evolution of the situation seems to agree with Washington, which has managed to embarrass Russia with the intensification of economic sanctions. Putin, however, is aware of this division and rejects opportunities for dialogue offered by Western diplomats, which allow considerable room for maneuver in the conduct of the dispute with Ukraine. On the other hand the possibility that you are going to a worsening of the situation with a confrontation between the armed forces of the two countries, is becoming more and more concrete. This eventuality could lead to scenarios until now not even covered, which could see involved, in various ways, the Western countries in a much more engaging than the existing sanctions. In Berlin appears irritated special way to Kiev for the intensification of military operations, which are undermining the possible dialogue with Moscow. This strategy, however, has not received any complaint from Washington, which maintains a less peaceful, because of repeated violations of international law committed by Moscow. With this in mind, while trying to take advantage of the opportunity for a diplomatic meeting, the possibility that the top four, including Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France, arrive at some results appear to be very remote. It should be noted that the condition laid down in Moscow for negotiations is the interruption of military supplies to the rebels, which Russia supplies even admits to doing, while considering the legitimate revolt of the people pro-Russian eastern Ukraine. Not satisfy this necessary condition any type of interview is a vain attempt to reach any goal towards peace.
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