Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
Politica Internazionale
Cerca nel blog
martedì 4 novembre 2014
A possible victory of the Republicans are likely to block the United States
The forecast for the mid-term vote in the US seem to be negative for Obama. The real risk is that the Republicans repeated in the Senate, the situation already in the room, where they hold the majority. Such an option would mean a significant limitation to the action of the President in office in the last two years in office. The surveys do not provide reliable data, but an increase of the Republicans, without quantifying if this will achieve a majority in both houses. The priority that the White House put on the agenda will be the measures to be taken to combat climate change, gay rights and immigration issues. It is this last issue, it is considered central by analysts, which will have important implications for the orientation of the vote of the citizens of Hispanic origin, on the one hand and the other white electorate. It seems to be a feeling that well-founded, immigration, despite the intentions of regulatory legislation in favor of illegal immigrants, Obama has failed to do enough, jeopardizing his relationship with Hispanic voters, crucial to his election, but oriented in the majority, in this round, to boycott the polls, thus favoring the Republican Party. It should be specified that the matter is very delicate and Obama did not stand for a single decision, not to alienate the votes of whites. But this behavior could also affect the Republican campaign, who wants to steal votes from Hispanic Democrats, but going against its traditional constituency. The political importance of Latinos to be seen also in view of the presidential elections, the Hispanic block is now vital for any candidate, regardless of its origin policy. Who should show up with a reform of the law on illegal immigration adopted by consensus Hispanic electorate would have great opportunity to earn the Latino vote for their cause. Both sides are aware of this factor: if the Democrats appear to have the greatest difficulty to explain why it has not yet reached a final bill, Republicans must defend themselves from the charge of having hindered the process. The reality is that the two major parties did not have enough courage to regulate illegal immigration with a law for immigrants, because they fear the reaction of the white electorate. We are in a context no longer defined as a time, which is formed by a large share of voters who can swing from both sides or choose abstention; In this scenario, reconcile conflicting interests, sometimes the opposite is a balancing policy, which is likely to have the opposite effect. Obama can count on falling unemployment and revive the economy, but the US appear a country tired and almost folded back on itself, where the results of the improvement of the living conditions are given almost taken for granted; Fortunately for the Democrats, but foreign policy is not the most passionate voters, given the disastrous management Obama era, which was, however, partly due to the legacy left by the Bush administration heavy. The outgoing president, so his party, seems to be able to pay more than the effects of broken promises, that effective political action, affected by several setbacks due the inexperience of the executive, but also to the strong contrast of the Republicans who often acted with a very short-sighted, only crossing the goal to disrupt presidential politics. With a victory in both chambers achieved by the Republican Party, one that can be achieved is a block of the country completely divided within its powers and therefore unable to address the important challenges that lie ahead. If the United States will enter into a kind of stagnation, many international issues could be present, on the contrary, a factor for joining the organs of the country to keep the American role. In any case one that can be open season seems of great instability.
Iscriviti a:
Commenti sul post (Atom)
Nessun commento:
Posta un commento