The meanings of the Assad visit to Moscow

Assad's visit to Moscow makes official what the Russian involvement in the Syrian issue was implemented implicitly. Without the dictator of Damascus, as an interpreter in the central question we can not come to a final settlement. Russia's recognition is the official way that served this purpose, erasing all American intentions to find an alternative solution, configured without the presence of Assad. At this point, for Washington, it is reviewing its plans for a solution that can contain the power of the government in Damascus, but that can not be separated from his presence. The presence of Assad in the Kremlin legitimate, then, the Syrian president as head of his country and the means to a safe place in the negotiations that, sooner or later will have to start to define the country's future; Meanwhile, however, Assad gets international recognition, although not unanimously, to continue his fight in the conflict to maintain its power. Assad is clearly a tool of Russia and even Iran, because the regime maintains its power and ensuring for Moscow and Tehran the advantages they have had so far, both on a practical level, the permanence of the only Russian naval military base in the Mediterranean, both politically, which it aims to leave unchanged the balance of power in the Middle Eastern region. Of more relevance are the consequences of this visit to Putin and Russia, which break with a striking initiative, the state of international subordination, to which the development of the world situation had condemned, returning to play a prominent role in the story world, currently, more delicate. There is no doubt, in fact, that the direct military intervention of Moscow has allowed Russia to regain some sort of legitimacy in the international arena, where his voice can no longer be heard. The Kremlin, in essence, took advantage of the Syrian conflict, and, above all, immobility US, to fill the void that was being formed by the lack of decisive action on the part of a great power; This space is now occupied by Russia, who returns as the center of the international stage as a protagonist. On the future of the Syrian issue are so put fixed points constituted by the presence of Assad, as a legitimate head of his country, the presence of Russia and the more in the background politically, Iran, as subjects now rooted in the balance the Middle East, which, at this point , become less variable and contrary to US targets. Remain on the table at least two issues that require an urgent solution: the first is the defeat of the Islamic State; what happens on this point Washington had not foreseen and that is the obligation for Member States to deal directly with Russia. This deal includes a compulsory co-operation in the military and political, that will force the US to a different attitude to Moscow, not only in the Syrian issue but also in other issues where the view is very different. The second issue is that the Kurdish issue, a problem that is completely immersed in the war against the caliphate and invests other powers, deeply opposed Russian intervention, such as Turkey and US allies. Assad's position towards the Kurds has so far been ambiguous, alternating phases of opposition to other tactical alliance, especially in those areas where the conflict was against the common enemy, consisting of the Islamic state. Russia aims to ensure the unity of the Syrian state, but for Assad remains essential to maintain control on the coastal area, the richer and more industrialized. The US could exploit this willingness to Damascus to get free territories for the Kurds and stays and the democratic opposition; Only in this way could reduce the political defeat of the entrance in the field of Russia, which, at the time, is the real winner in the affair, having regained that role from great power long pursued by Putin, and supported by nationalist circles. To the head of the Kremlin it is a starting point to try to win, goal always proclaimed since the election campaign, the importance that Moscow had in Soviet times.