The attack on the Russian plane opens the front of the Sinai as the international emergency

If, as seems increasingly likely, the Russian aircraft was the victim of a terrorist attack, it is necessary to make some observations and reflections on how the attack. After the fall of the aircraft, the Russian authorities and the Egyptian immediately talked of technical failure with virtually no controls in place, and the reasons are understandable: both countries, albeit for different reasons, they had every reason to not accredit an act of terrorism. Moscow is important to keep at bay the fear of terrorist retaliation, that may result from our commitment to the Syrian war, against the Islamic State; Cairo for a bomb attack in the only area that currently represents a secure source of income for a struggling economy, like the Egyptian, means a safe curtailment of revenue. The claim of the Islamic state, which claimed to have shot down the plane with a missile, it had seemed credible to the legitimate concerns that the Caliphate could have such weapons. Despite these doubts only claim the attack had focused the attention of analysts on an event that was considered highly likely going to war with Russia. If the hypothesis of the bomb on board will be confirmed, it will become impossible to deny the terrorist attack, but it appears very unlikely that the Islamic state he was the author. The claim, in fact, speaks of missile, as a tool used to bring down the plane and no bomb, then was made only to use propaganda, without knowing the actual means used to cause the destruction of the aircraft and the death of all its occupants. One hypothesis might be that the perpetrators of the massacre are the elements that share the ideology of Islamic fundamentalism, but do not belong to any organization, however the technical knowledge that requires the organization of the attack is to assume that it is not totally elements unrelated to the circles of Islamic terrorism. In this view it does not seem to be random the place where the attack took place: the Sinai Peninsula. In this place there is the crucial battle for the Egyptian government against Islamist groups, which constitute the most important nucleus of the revolt against the regime of Al-Sisi. After the purge of the Muslim Brotherhood the center of the revolt against the new Egyptian government has moved in the Sinai, where you can take advantage of the terrain to hide and the proximity to the Gaza Strip, which is considered an ideal reservoir for Islamist recruitment. In this area, thanks to the weld between rebels Egyptians and the presence of representatives of the Islamic state would have created a basis of the caliphate. But aversion Russian intervention could also think of a matrix of the attack from Al Qaeda, after which you have noticed signs of rapprochement between the two major organizations of Islamic terrorism in the name of a common struggle not only against the United States, but now also against Russia. Another hypothesis, not necessarily unrelated to the previous ones, identify the cause of the attack in retaliation against the Bedouin tribes who support the government in the territory of Sinai, to guarantee the security of the tourist industry, in which they are employed. In any case, apart from the tragedy of the Russian victims, the attack seems to hit the country in a major Egyptian, precisely because of internal dynamics, which have the epicenter in the Sinai and signals a dangerous concentration of potential destabilizing factors, which It may go beyond the borders of the country. This possibility could open a new front of international conflict, including the presence of the Israeli border. It is a scenario far from remote, because the terrorism in the Sinai has shown the ability to hit targets increasingly Egyptians, and the fact that the armed forces of the country, one of the most equipped in the Arab countries, have failed to still have reason of terrorist movements raises serious questions about the ability to expand the conflict in neighboring Jordan, an ally of the US in the fight against the Islamic or indirectly to more distant countries, but also more involved, such as Russia, through bombings. Sinai, therefore, assumes a strategic importance in the wider context of the Middle East conflicts, in which the great powers, like the US and Russia, will have to find a common point.