Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
Politica Internazionale
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lunedì 14 marzo 2016
They share the peace negotiations for Syria, with the unknown Assad.
Assad The problem remains the central point in the peace negotiations under way in Geneva. For
the Syrian opposition in the country a peaceful transition of power is
essential to the dismissal of the Damascus dictator, opposed position by
the regime, which poses as a necessary condition for continuing
negotiations, the exclusion of a withdrawal from the Syrian political
scene of the President of the country. It
is not clear whether that condition is transient, either, that is, the
current functional status of the situation or may be later modified. In
fact the possibility of an eventual release of the final scene of Assad
appear remote: Russian aid and support of Iran returned an
international player, are sufficient safeguards to prevent the removal
of power. Even
in the case of democratic elections, provided that you are able to do
and to take place with equal criteria for all competitors, Assad still
has the possibility of indirect control of many administrative areas and
could take advantage of it without difficulty. The
Damascus government relies on what he thinks the symbol of the
sovereignty of the Republic of Syria, as a guarantee of the success of
the negotiations, especially in key anti Islamic state and, therefore,
believes that at this stage of negotiations, a deal relating to a speech
transition
of power, both ward off the real goal, which is to maintain the truce
and to prevent the consequences of the fighting on civilians. This
is the answer to what is requested by the High National Committee on
the negotiations, the body that represents the opposition to Assad, who
was waiting for a new schedule of meetings, with the aim of arriving at
elections, in which the dictator of Damascus not he could apply, with the first significant step in starting their own transition. This
distance between the two parties is considerable, however, the
negotiations begin to coincide with the anniversary of the start of the
Syrian war, the fifth, which resulted in a humanitarian disaster of
great proportions, with more than 250,000 deaths, a health situation in
the country emergency level, with the consequence of having opened a large migration to the European countries. Currently
the fragile truce seems to resist and the ceasefire has had only small
relief of violations, this aspect is considered very important by the
negotiators and provide a basis on which to develop the indispensable
starting negotiations for a more secure peace. The
difficulties in advancing the negotiations are very present in the
United Nations envoys, as well as the absence of a viable alternative
further: in this regard Staffan de Mistura said expressly that a failure
of the negotiations would reopen the conflict, probably even more It lasts. Certainly
there are elements capable of disrupting the negotiations, such as the
Kurdish question, with the Turks who have prevented representatives of
Kurdish fighters, US allies, to participate in negotiations and the same
attitude of Ankara and Saudi Arabia, strongly opposed to Assad, which is balanced by the attitude the Russian and Iranian. This
series of meetings should be terminated on March 24, but were
unsuccessful negotiators will have to resort again to the most
influential parts of the International Support Group on Syria: US,
Russia and the United Nations Security Council.
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