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mercoledì 24 aprile 2019
The United States suspend exemptions for the purchase of Iranian oil
The US administration's intention to increase pressure on Iran, through the interruption of the exemption from the sanctions for the purchase of crude oil from Tehran, which was valid only for some countries, risks having very significant political and economic consequences. Meanwhile, the notice given is very limited, in fact the exceptions will have to cease from the next two May. The reason for this acceleration is identified in the need to limit the geopolitical action of the Islamic republic in the Middle Eastern region in favor of the Shiites and also to reduce Iranian influence in Syria. For these objectives, the White House believes that considerable financial efforts have been made, deriving precisely from the sale of crude oil. However, the US must limit that the decrease in available crude oil causes an increase per barrel, in an international context that has already registered a price increase of three percent on the total price of the barrel. Who can support the maneuver is only Saudi Arabia, with the collaboration of the United Arab Emirates, which have pledged to put on the market the quantity of crude oil needed to offset the Iranian one. The interest of the Sunni monarchies is double, on the one hand the increase in economic income should be recorded, but above all, to satisfy the functional geostrategic aspects of these countries, traditionally enemies of Iran, while in the background there will also be the satisfaction of Israel, now on the side of the Sunni countries against Tehran. The countries affected by the US maneuver are Japan, South Korea, Turkey, China, India, Italy, Greece and Taiwan. The American threat is to sanction the goods of these countries to the United States, if they continue to buy Iranian crude. The official reason is the unilateral withdrawal of the United States from the Iranian nuclear treaty, never disregarded by European and European Union countries, which participated in the difficult negotiations. Trump fears that the Iranian country could equip itself with an atomic weapon and, through it, alter the regional balance and threaten Israel; however, this form of pressure affects an economy already in great difficulty due to the sanctions already in place and which strongly influences the life of the population of the country; but if Trump's hope is to get rebellions from the population towards the regime, it does not seem possible that it will come true: Iranian citizens seem to turn their resentment towards the eternal American enemies, the Sunni countries and Israel, which they believe responsible for the failure to comply with the nuclear agreement, which caused the sanctions and the compression of the national economy. Towards the USA there is also resentment of those states that had entered into contracts with Iran and are now faced with a practically forced choice. A central issue is the intrusion into the economy of sovereign states that Washington uses as a tool to achieve its goals in foreign policy: that is, it sets up a perspective substantially not shared by those states that suffer the blackmail of the interruption of relations with the Iranian country. The argument is not even valid, that Iran is a liberticidal regime, which suppresses the opposition and does not guarantee the rights of its citizens, which is certainly true, because Saudi Arabia is an equally liberticidal dictatorship. So there remains only the obligation to adapt to the American reasons. This strategy is part of the Trump doctrine and its way of relating to enemies and allies interpreted only in a single direction and which represents one of the major reasons for the alienation from the USA by Europe and the growing distrust of the American president. If the question of duties between China and the United States seems to be moving towards a positive solution, the fact of the purchase of Iranian oil could become even more dangerous from a political point of view, because it involves an aspect where the US is not directly involved and on the which exercise arbitrariness.
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