Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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martedì 7 gennaio 2020
Trump's reckless policy
The attack on the Iranian general, if framed in Trump's political action, despite its evident gravity, can certainly fall within the anomalous ways of managing power that have been initiated since the election of the current tenant of the White House. The Trump presidency has distinguished itself for having broken all the schemes that the management of power by the most important world power has required in its history. If it is true that Iranian action was becoming increasingly intrusive and open-minded it is equally true, that the choice to counter it was not the diplomatic one, abandoned immediately with the unilateral withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear treaty, but with a field choice that it has been too conditioned by Israel and the unreliable allies of the Saudi monarchies. The confrontation between the USA and Iran was proceeding in the dimension of a low intensity and asymmetric conflict, that is, never entrusted in a clear and nominal way to elements of the respective states. The decision to break the rules of international law, striking an official of the Iranian country on the territory of a third country, without warning the Iraqi institutions, represents an act of war not only towards Tehran but also a blatant violation against Baghdad. If international law has been violated in the manner typical of a dictatorial entity, from a political point of view, threats to hit cultural sites have been even worse, highlighting the lack of knowledge of the legislation established by the Hague Convention on war crimes : a not insignificant element for those who hold the position of President of the United States. It is also necessary to point out the disgrace towards the allies, with the failure to communicate the action, which, in addition to having a high political value, could also have a practical effect in case of immediate retaliation, which fortunately did not exist, towards the allies of the United States. The first consequence is that of having wiped out years of commitment in Iraq: as requested by the Iraqi parliament, American troops and their bases are no longer well accepted, which leaves Tehran free field, but also to a resumption of terrorism thanks to the latent presence of the state Islamic, never completely defeated. How will the situation evolve? Tehran has already decided to equip itself with the nuclear weapon and the attack on its general gives him the go-ahead to openly claim this intention, to which the Iranian country had already been directed due to the American sanctions. On the domestic front, the American act managed to quell internal conflicts, effectively canceling the economic discontents and street demonstrations and thus making the way of support for the opposition impracticable. From a military point of view, the Islamic Republic is forced to retaliate in order not to prove itself as a weak subject, especially with a view to maintaining prestige as a regional power. In this regard, the intention declared by the country's supreme leader is that the reprisals are carried out by regular Iranian forces and not by flanking militias, if this aim were to be implemented the escalation that will ensue could truly lead to a new world conflict. Whatever happens, Trump's tactic has proven to be a failure, as every time such reckless use of violence is made. It is also important to analyze, albeit briefly, the possible reasons for such a reckless act: the proximity of the presidential elections, combined with the accusation of the American president, could have led to the implementation of an extreme strategy, which puts evidence, in addition to the fact of the absolute inadequacy in the role of the highest American office, also the total confusion and, perhaps, desperation, of a personality where the cult for itself has distorted every possible reasonableness. The American electoral body will soon have the possibility of not seeing a terrible responsibility fall on itself. In the meantime, it is necessary that all world diplomacies, not affected by madness and false omnipotence, work to avoid catastrophe.
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