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lunedì 30 marzo 2020

North Korea carries out pandemic missile tests

Pyongyang has carried out a new missile test, this is the fourth launch since the beginning of the year.
This time the object of the launches were two short-range classified ballistic missiles and their trajectory traveled about 230 kilometers, with a maximum height of thirty kilometers, before finishing their race at sea in Japan. The reason for the test was explained in the need to verify the technical characteristics of the launch systems, before handing over the armaments to the armed forces; this should mean that these missiles are about to enter the official endowment of the North Korean army. It should be remembered that last year there were thirteen missile tests and the negotiations for the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula between the American president and that of North Korea, despite a promised start, ended with a failure, which was not allowed, between the other, the cancellation of U.S. sanctions against the Pyongyang regime. What could be the political reason for such a fact at a time like this? North Korea, according to official data from Pyongyang, would not have cases of contagion, however this possibility does not seem possible given the level of infection present in neighboring South Korea, a country much more advanced from a medical point of view and which has been able to adopt a very effective contagion containment strategy, also based on the prevention and use of advanced technologies. Some rumors speak of several cases of contagion in the armed forces and of isolation measures adopted by the North Korean country against foreigners. The situation could be very serious, given the internal situation, very problematic also because of the sanctions and the continuous commercial exchanges that take place with China and which constitute 90% of the total exchanges of the North Korean country. Furthermore, the long common border that separates the two states constitutes a further element of danger for the potential permeability of the virus from the Chinese country to North Korea. The World Health Organization has repeatedly expressed its concern about the dangers of spreading the virus in North Korea, within a social fabric already proven by malnutrition and poor medical condition; these concerns are also shared by the US, which fear the repercussions of the pandemic towards the South Korean ally. The launch of the missiles, which raised the protests in Seoul, could signal the intention of the regime to request aid to fight the virus, this would be part of the normal dialectic that Pyongyang uses when it does not intend to ask directly. Another clue to this reading of the missile launch is that it is the only test that has not been directly supervised by Kim Jong-Un, but by one of the vice-presidents of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party. This news is official because it is reported by the regime's news agency and represents a clear communication to the powers hostile to North Korea of ​​a proof that can be considered "minor", even if it always constitutes a military warning. The strategy therefore seems to have the objective of returning attention to North Korea, although in a more problematic than normal context, a context that could contribute to the concerns of Pyongyang, which would have the interest of maximizing the possible effects of the threat in a situation of serious global destabilization due to the pandemic. It is not said, however, that this attitude favors the achievement of Pyongyang's objectives: the use of military threats in a pandemic period could produce results contrary to those desired and condemn North Korea to an even greater isolation. Conversely, a more realistic, negotiation-based approach would seem the most appropriate; but Kim Jong-Un's logic follows its own paths.

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