Trump's Wrong-Eyed Conflict with Iran

 At present, negotiations appear to be an attempt that is continually failing, with the situation worsening further. The latest development has been the entry of the Houthis into the picture, a threat that has gone from latent to concrete. During the election campaign, Trump had repeatedly criticized American wars in distant countries: now the US President is the protagonist, despite having repeatedly promised not to involve the country with him as a White House occupant. Not only that, in addition to promising not to start any wars, he promised to end those underway. Unfortunately, the truth is plain for all to see: the President's ambitions have led to rising oil prices and dragged the world into an economic recession, with implications for future emigration, as food shortages are virtually guaranteed, given that the blockade also affects fertilizers. The main mistake was comparing Venezuela to Iran, where it was believed the regime was weaker, but it has been able to react, both domestically and externally, demonstrating a resilience that was anything but expected. Furthermore, the United States, which began by preventing nuclear development, has suffered a shift in the conflict's motivations, now directed against the free movement of goods, primarily oil. If control over transit through the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb were assured, the share of global oil blocked or otherwise subject to the control of Iran and its Houthi allies would be approximately 30 percent, with even more serious consequences for the global economy. This could transform the conflict, potentially involving other powers geographically far from the region. For now, however, the conflict is stagnant due to the relative scarcity of available weapons on both sides. Iran is pursuing a strategy of engaging its adversary with attacks that do not require an expenditure of economic resources, while the United States, politically unable to afford a ground attack, sees its strategy of targeted bombings increasingly losing effectiveness. The midterm elections scheduled for November in the US loom over this situation, while Trump's current approval rating is very low. Tehran is exploiting this factor, forcing the White House not to give in. This, however, leaves the US stuck in the middle of the battlefield, with little success. In any case, the outcome is a defeat for the American president. Ultimately, after spending €33 billion on the conflict, a subject of intense criticism and seemingly insufficient, Trump may be forced to cede the Strait of Hormuz to Iran to end the war, thus providing an unexpected and certainly significant source of income for a country in serious economic crisis. At the same time, there is no longer any talk of depriving Iran of its ability to build a nuclear weapon. Tehran is managing to win on two fronts, and the regime appears increasingly stable. It can be said that Trump has failed on all his predetermined objectives. Even the possibility of leaving the crisis management to other international actors, a very real possibility, would be a political and diplomatic defeat that the American president would not easily absorb. One very dangerous solution, one that hopefully will not materialize, is to support the Israeli leader in his desire to attack Iran regardless, a move currently held back by Trump: a scenario that, indeed, could drag the world toward a very sad outcome.