The unknowns of the peace conference for Syria

The favor with which he was welcomed the agreement on the destruction of chemical weapons Syria , brought results, which , perhaps, have avoided new casualties caused by the use of poison gas, but have not stopped the carnage , especially of civilians, continued through conventional weapons . From this , very sad , base part of the conference in Geneva two, which should find an agreed process for the transition of the shift of power in Damascus. But the whole is still expressed as a conditional , because there are too many variables on the ground , which can prevent a fast, a necessary condition to stop the massacres and the situation of health and food shortages , which the Syrian people are submissive. On the one hand the Syrian opposition moderate , which is probably the majority in the framework of the forces hostile to Assad , has to deal also with the other movements : a universe composed of Islamic radicals and are affiliated to Al Qaeda, which, although numerically smaller , are distinguished by their military capacity and a stubborn desire to establish itself , to create , in the areas under their tutelage . where the caliphate to enforce Islamic law . This state of affairs could suggest a dissolution of the Syrian state , which , in some ways , it could be the most concrete to stop a conflict seems inevitable that the fall of Assad and that, in fact , has already begun, first at isolated clashes , and then take a peculiarity within the general framework of the dispute . However, this option is not acceptable, for obvious reasons of geographic strategy , the Western powers , taking part in the conference , and indeed the main purpose, especially for the USA and the countries of the Persian Gulf, is precisely to preserve the unity of the country and then bring it under its sphere of influence and then subtract Iran and Hizbullah , main allies of Damascus, together with Russia . If you can understand the needs of the Western powers and their allies , which consist of regional stability , even in relation to safeguarding of Israel, have prefixed these reasons at the end of the conflict, expresses clearly the Syrian people will have to wait for the end of the fighting . In fact, it seems clear that it is not plausible that so conflicting interests accept this solution without adequate responses , thus increasing the negotiations for peace. One of the conditions that should be drawn up by the Geneva conference , resulting from the conclusions of the previous London talks is that the current Syrian president Bashar Al Assad should not be covered in the most absolute in the country's future. This condition seems difficult to achieve in a short time , as the Damascus regime can still count on a decent military force and control of large areas of the country. Discarding the military option against the Syrian regular army , in exchange for the destruction of chemical weapons , has given way to the regime to prolong its existence to configure any of the possible hypotheses , even the inevitability of his fall . One option proposed by Damascus would be to admit to any Assad elections also , a way definable legal, which could allow the dictator to return to the game . This possibility is rejected by the opposition because of the harsh crackdown by the Syrian President , which disqualifies him as a political future , but at the same time poses an obstacle difficult to overcome in the negotiations regarding the future of Assad. Also because with the Syrian dictator , which could easily reach a golden exile towards a goal such as Moscow , you have to decide the fate of all those who have supported the regime. A solution that does not go towards national reconciliation is definitely ruled out, because it could not constitute a new state to begin his historic journey with brutal vengeance , but too many tragedies have been accomplished and justice must take its course , even from the side of the rebels, but on the basis of equity and right well defined. Only a negotiated settlement , in detail, can promote these conditions, but the deal must, inevitably , all the stakeholders, otherwise it can not be achieved any result of any practical effect .