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giovedì 12 febbraio 2015

The responsibilities of the Ukrainian crisis

International actors who participated in the conference in Minsk, reaching a truce without much certainty and with the difficult goal of reducing the ongoing violence in the eastern part of the country of Ukraine, are all responsible for the serious military situation in progress. The most serious aspect, in terms of international relations is the presence of an acute crisis between the US and Russia, which reported that the general climate of the Cold War, with a realistic chance of encountering a dangerous escalation. The comparison between the Russian and Ukrainian had a beginning essentially political in 2013, when then-President Yanukovych does not put his signature on the Treaty of Association to the European Union because of an alliance with Moscow considered more profitable. Ukraine was going through a time of severe economic crisis and on this particular pointed the two opposing parties, the West and Russia, not to miss a particularly strategic territory. In fact, right around this issue disagreements between the West and Moscow made the situation already particularly conducive to the outbreak of tensions, which presaged the tragic developments. Because of the sudden retreat of the Ukrainian president, convinced by the reasons of the Kremlin, developed riots that involved more than 800,000 people, as a result of which sharpened the strong disagreements between Ukrainian nationalism and Russian nationalism, a contrast that never faded and took new force with the fall of the Soviet empire. This comparison is the real reason for the current situation: a deep rift, to mitigate which neither party has never done anything, exploiting, indeed, the potential aggregation of the respective components. The address deeply anti-Russian government that followed that of Yanukovych, was placed in this direction sparking protests in the regions in the Russian majority, that is, in the south and east of the country, one in which you are now fighting. At this point the strategy of Putin, was to pursue the annexation, in its entirety, as the Crimea became Russian territory, or in a more subtle, as in the eastern territories. The scheme provided and still provides probably the use of soldiers belonging to the army of Moscow, engaged in military action without any sign of recognition; in this way were busy centers of administrative power in order to block the exercise of power by the Ukrainian authorities. With this climate in Crimea was held a referendum, never recognized by the international community, which was voted the annexation to Russia. In the Ukraine Eastern attempted to repeat a similar manner the annexation, but the increased presence of Ukrainian Nationalists and the pressure of the West, has resulted in a constant effort, but less obvious, which has left the area most exposed to the military conflict, which resulted in a huge cost in human lives. This aspect has requested an urgent solution to be shared between the parties, identified by some, in the creation of a demilitarized zone able to split the Ukrainian army and the separatists, at least for the time necessary to find a form of coexistence shared accepted by the contenders. This solution collides with the current position of the forces in the field, which recorded a pro-Russian advanced, than signed and kept in the previous meeting in Minsk; In fact, Ukraine claims the previous positions. Kiev, then not seen favorably a possible presence of peacekeepers of the United Nations, which would give an international flavor to the new boundaries, favoring politically pro-Russian. Even a federal solution with wide autonomy to the eastern regions, currently appears impractical, for the will of the Ukrainian guard the borders with Russia, with its troops in support of the preservation of its territorial integrity, the assumption does not currently configurable. If you look at a regional perspective, that is strictly limited to the area of the conflict, the dominance is certainly the pro-Russian, which, however, depend exclusively on Russia, what has to broaden the perspective from local to international because of the sanctions, provided by the Western world just to counteract the action of the Kremlin, Moscow who put in big economic trouble. But the same sanctions are producing economic damage even to those who have issued, and the bill is paid by the major European Union countries, which, for this reason, diverge on the manner in which Washington wants to carry on the battle . With all Ukraine, instead of improving their economic conditions, which are then made trigger which started the crisis, is in an even worse situation, because aggravated by the cost of the war. The contrast between the West and Russia seems to come to a point where any kind of dialogue is blocked. Attempts Merkel and Hollande had not so far had any effect with Putin, who continued his tactics despite the effects of the sanctions. At the moment for Russia is more important to ensure that the Atlantic Alliance does not arrive on its borders having control of the eastern regions of Ukraine, the impression is that if this assumption will not be satisfied with the military escalation will be unstoppable. Certainly from a Western point of view this allows to shift entirely the responsibility of what is happening to the Kremlin leader, who is also guilty of breaking the rules of international law, but must also due to the western part of the responsibility to have underestimated and the problem of not having been able to prevent the developments, now escaped from any control. Not always the sanctions policy fails to have the desired effects, especially without adequate study preventive action; essentially sanctioning the practice appears, in the light of current developments, a solution rash, although matured inside right beliefs. Signed agreement does not resolve any issue permanently, we speak of a general cease-fire and release of prisoners, without a framework to regulate the status of the disputed territories. Moreover, while the parties were committed to discuss, according to Ukraine, Russian military vehicles have crossed the border of Kiev, to add to the pro-Russian separatists. What seems more reached an agreement signed to show the world that it has come to something, but that something is insufficient for a definitive resolution of the crisis. The good thing is the achievement of the truce, provided it is maintained, which should alleviate the plight of the civilian population. However no further progress will be talking about new weapons.

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