Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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giovedì 29 settembre 2016
Syria: The US threatened to break off negotiations with Russia
The
attitude of Syria and Russia caused severe humanitarian problems in the
city of Aleppo, which is suffering from a siege for a long time,
resulting in severe discomfort health and hygiene for the population. Just
to alleviate the difficulties of the inhabitants still present in
Aleppo, a truce was agreed between Washington and Moscow, which was to
allow humanitarian convoys to supply and bring medical care in the
besieged city. If
Russia had signed this agreement, Syria did not like this arrangement,
he came back into an acceptable time to the troops Assad, about to take
the city. Damascus the truce gave the opportunity to the resistance to regroup and find alternatives to resist the siege. Despite
these misgivings Moscow had reached an agreement with Washington, which
could also provide a basis for future developments on the future of the
country. The
bombing occurred accidentally by American units on Syrian army
positions, although followed by immediate apology, provided the pretext
for a break, in fact, of the agreed truce. Russia
attacked a humanitarian convoy, directed to Aleppo, arousing even the
disapproval of the United Nations, and, together with Syria, resumed
hostilities to conquer Aleppo, with raids on the city, they have
recorded, once again, many victims civilians. In this framework it has matured the ultimatum of the US to Russia to terminate talks. The
fact, from the diplomatic point of view, is an aggravating circumstance
for the Syrian situation, but without being flanked by a military
action, could only create a situation conducive to Assad and then to
Putin. To
avoid an open confrontation with the Russians the United States may
consider making a greater supply of arms to the rebel forces in Aleppo,
and that is what is feared in Moscow and Damascus. The
Kremlin, in fact proposed a truce of 48 hours, which may not give
effect to any American plans, while Washington has proposed a seven-day,
which is evaluated by the Russian-Syrian front, functional to provide
arms to the rebels. From
a military point of view, despite major bombing carried out with
incendiary barrels, used with the aim of destroying the fortified
shelters, it was found that, in the battles underway in Aleppo, carried
out by now, almost hand to hand, the contribution the air force is not as certain as could be, on the contrary, the arrival of new weapons. Precisely
for this reason it has become crucial, for both parties, the time
factor: for the Syrians is important to accelerate the conflict without
any interruptions, while the rebels has become essential to gain time,
and to regroup, either to see materialize the possibility of supply from the American war material. Russia,
for its part, seeks to lose face in front of the international public
opinion, and is said to favor the hypothesis of a 48-hour humanitarian
truce to allow supplies to the population, but disagree profoundly on
the assumption of the seven days without clashes. From
the point of view of prostration situation of the civilian population,
it should be more than a week to try to resolve the serious health
situation, an essential place to start for a first restoration of the
theater of war; but it is also true that this time is contrary to the interests of Assad, who sees the possibility to conquer Aleppo imminent. The
impression is that both Assad that Russia, intend to put the US in
front of the accomplished fact of the conquest of Aleppo, to get this
established position for a possible peace conference, or otherwise to
any negotiating table. This would be the direct consequence of immobility American, Obama has kept from the beginning of the Syrian affair. Rely
entirely on diplomacy proved wrong, as not having been able to foresee
the entry into Moscow's game, in the theater of war in Syria; these premises do be the American ultimatum to break the talks, yet another bankruptcy action and without consequences. One
can understand that Obama is at the end of the mandate, but before the
election of the new or the new occupant of the White House, it will be
inevitable that the American position will be a disadvantage against
Russia and Syria, if Washington will continue to face the problem with this passivity.
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