The threat of a reduction in US military commitment in Europe

 The threat is real: the Pentagon is considering a review of the US military presence in the European states of the Atlantic Alliance. The possibility of a reduction in the number of troops, bases, and military capabilities appears to have become potentially very real. The expected date for knowing the future of the US military presence in Europe is November 6, when the Pentagon will present at least four different options for the deployment of military forces. Relations between European states and President Trump are not optimist, and the countries of the Atlantic Alliance fear a significant reduction in the number of troops present on their territories, where approximately 80,000 US troops are currently stationed. The real threat is that countries that have not provided the support requested by the White House in the conflict against Iran will be penalized. From a political standpoint, the European countries' decision not to grant their bases was correct, as the US administration had launched a war without notifying its allies, as per protocol, and therefore without taking into account any potential, but certain, disagreements. Even from a regulatory perspective, the right to overflight, parking, and landing for American military aircraft, which are enshrined in the alliance's treaties, has been respected in the circumstances for which it was denied; however, Trump's allergy to rules and procedures is well known, and his refusals constituted personal affronts to the White House president. One possible interpretation is that the US administration wants to renegotiate the terms of use of foreign bases, threatening to reduce its presence in Europe. According to members of the Atlantic Alliance, a unilateral reduction of US troops would not be possible without prior agreements, but Trump's intentions were already there as soon as he took office, when he criticized the European members of the Atlantic Alliance for not contributing enough to the budget and for leaving the bulk of the effort to the United States. That there has been stagnation in European defense investments is a fact, and that the attitude for many years has been to practically entirely delegate Europe's defense to the United States is equally true. American policy, however, cannot, at this time, disengage too much from Europe, especially now that it has embarked on the path of tougher sanctions against Iran. Greater support will need to come from European countries, also in the interests of containing Russia, which will likely side with Beijing on Tehran's side. In any case, the US will not demand, in return, an expansion of the European base agreements, but rather a different approach, in its favor, to issues related to space, cybersecurity, and intelligence infrastructure. If European states are to concede anything, they must accelerate the process of freeing themselves from American defense and becoming an increasingly autonomous entity. This process cannot be instantaneous but must involve economic investment and political rules. This does not mean suspending the alliance with the US, but rather protecting itself from those who do not share the need for a top-tier European player. The Ukrainian war, despite its dramatic nature, can foster this process, thanks to the void the Americans are leaving behind, which can only be filled by a European player, because it is physically closer and therefore more involved.